By: Amarachi Okonkwo

The Nigerian stock market traded cautiously last week, even as investors sustained a broader bullish momentum, driving capitalisation gains of over N837 billion on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), despite a shortened trading week due to the Easter holidays.

The NGX market capitalisation, which reflects the total value of listed equities, rose to N129.806 trillion, up from N128.806 trillion in the previous week.

Similarly, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) advanced by 0.4 per cent week-on-week (WoW) to close at 201,698.89 points, compared to 200,914.06 points previously.

Market Drivers

The market’s performance was largely supported by bargain hunting in key blue-chip stocks, including MTN Nigeria, which gained 5.9 per cent, GTCO up 5.1 per cent, Transcorp which rose 4.2 per cent, and Unilever Nigeria, which appreciated by 10.0 per cent.

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Despite the positive close, market activity was subdued during the week, with trading volume declining by 27.7 per cent week-on-week, while transaction value fell by 42.9 per cent, reflecting reduced participation amid the shortened trading calendar and cautious investor sentiment.

Sector Performance Mixed

Sectoral performance was mixed across the board. The Banking Index recorded a gain of 0.7 per cent, while the Insurance Index declined by 4.2 per cent. The Consumer Goods Index fell by 1.7 per cent, and the Industrial Goods Index shed 0.2 per cent. The Oil and Gas Index, however, closed the week flat.

Global Oil Market Influences Sentiment

On the global front, developments in the crude oil market continued to shape investor sentiment. Oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude crossing the $110 per barrel mark amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

Brent crude rose by $7.96, representing a 7.9 per cent increase, to settle at $109.12 per barrel.

Analysts attribute the rally to fears of prolonged supply disruptions, particularly amid concerns over strategic supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, as well as warnings from global energy authorities about potential shocks to global supply chains.

For Nigeria, rising oil prices present a mixed outlook offering stronger fiscal revenues, but also increasing inflationary pressures that could influence monetary policy decisions and overall economic stability.

Commenting on the outlook, analysts at Cordros Capital said the market is expected to maintain a cautious tone, with selective positioning likely as investors prepare for first-quarter 2026 earnings releases.

They noted that bargain hunting may persist in undervalued stocks, although flows are expected to remain concentrated in fundamentally strong counters. They also highlighted that recent corporate actions and dividend announcements could sustain interest, particularly in the banking sector.

Similarly, analysts at InvestData Consulting Limited projected that the market would trade within a narrow range in the short term, with a mildly bullish bias driven by sector rotation and bargain hunting.

They added that elevated oil prices could support energy stocks, while banking and consumer goods equities may continue to experience mixed sentiment due to profit-taking and valuation concerns.

However, they cautioned that global uncertainties especially geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures are likely to keep investor sentiment cautious in the near term.