Lafarge’s Strong Q1 Pushes 2025 Stock Target Up to N104.71

Investment analysts have raised their projected 2025 target price for Lafarge Africa shares from N100.68 to N104.71 per share, citing robust first-quarter performance.

The company posted an impressive 80.3% revenue growth in Q1, driven by high cement sales volume and improved pricing strategies. This led to a recalibrated revenue forecast, now expected to rise by 40.7% year-on-year—up from the earlier 21.7% projection.
Total cement volume is now estimated to hit 6.41 million tons in 2025, with average cement prices forecast at N153,000 per ton, up from a prior estimate of N136,000. The analysts attributed this to increasing demand from both public and private sectors, improved operational efficiency, and strong market response to Lafarge’s new product offerings.

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Additionally, earnings per share (EPS) projections were significantly revised upward. The firm now expects a 110% year-on-year EPS growth, reaching N13.06—higher than the earlier forecast of N10.44. This jump is largely due to a dramatic 96.9% reduction in finance costs during the first quarter.
The updated share price target is based on a valuation model that combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and industry comparisons. Fair value estimates using DCF stand at N93.59 (Free Cash Flow to the Firm) and N87.05 (Free Cash Flow to Equity), while peer comparisons resulted in values of N161.67 and N163.23.

Key assumptions include a corporate tax rate of 30% and a 23.9% Weighted Average Cost of Capital. As of May 9, 2025, Lafarge’s share price stood at N81.95.
For the quarter ending March 31, 2025, Lafarge reported a pre-tax profit of N73.1 billion—up a staggering 739.47% from N8.7 billion in Q1 2024. Revenue hit N248.3 billion, with cement accounting for N242.6 billion. Additional revenue came from aggregates and concrete (N5.4 billion) and other product lines (N281 million).

Despite rising operating expenses, the company’s core operating profit jumped 136.97% to N71.6 billion, a major leap from N30.2 billion in the previous year.