World Bank: Nigeria Could Gain $400bn by 2040 Through Investment in Girls’ Development

Nigeria could unlock significant long-term economic gains if it prioritises sustained investment in adolescent girls, according to a new assessment by the World Bank Group, which estimates that such interventions could generate over $400 billion in additional income by 2040.

The report stated that achieving this economic potential would require an estimated $37 billion in targeted investments focused on education, healthcare, digital access, and economic inclusion for girls. It described adolescent girls as a key demographic capable of driving productivity and long-term national growth if structural barriers are addressed.

According to the assessment, while Nigeria records moderate performance in some indicators such as school enrolment and participation in early economic activity among girls aged 15 to 19, these averages conceal deep inequalities across regions, income groups, and rural-urban divides.

The report noted that outcomes are significantly weaker in the northern regions, where insecurity, poverty, and limited access to education continue to constrain opportunities for girls. It stated that disparities remain a major obstacle to achieving inclusive development and reducing poverty levels over time.

It further explained that approximately 45.7 percent of girls aged 15 to 19 are currently enrolled in school, a figure below the African average of 51.5 percent. At the same time, about 30.6 percent are engaged in some form of economic activity, which the report described as relatively higher compared to continental benchmarks.

However, the report stressed that these figures do not reflect the full extent of exclusion. It observed that in some parts of the country, particularly the North West and North East, more than half of adolescent girls are either out of school, unemployed, or already married with children.

Specifically, it noted that 55.1 percent of girls in the North West and 46.4 percent in the North East fall into vulnerable categories, underscoring regional inequality in access to education and economic opportunity.

Rural-urban disparities were also highlighted as a key challenge. The report indicated that only 32.4 percent of rural girls are enrolled in school compared to 59.2 percent in urban areas. It added that early marriage rates are significantly higher in rural communities, contributing to reduced educational attainment and limited participation in formal economic activities.

Income inequality was identified as another major constraint. The report showed that only 15.9 percent of girls from the poorest households are in school, compared to 62.2 percent among the wealthiest households. It also stated that nearly 59.3 percent of girls from low-income households are neither in school nor engaged in any form of employment.

Gender-based disparities remain persistent across multiple indicators. The report highlighted that girls face a higher likelihood of early marriage and reduced access to productive economic opportunities compared to boys. It noted that 19.2 percent of girls are married or already have children, compared to just 0.6 percent of boys, a gap that significantly affects education and labour market participation.

Digital exclusion was also identified as a growing concern. According to the report, only 12.3 percent of adolescent girls have access to the internet, compared to 18.1 percent of boys. Smartphone ownership among girls was placed at 36.6 percent, significantly lower than the 51.1 percent recorded for boys, limiting access to digital learning and economic opportunities.

The assessment further indicated that girls are more than twice as likely as boys to be out of school and not engaged in any form of work, reflecting structural barriers that limit their transition into productive adulthood.

To address these challenges, the report outlined a series of policy priorities aimed at unlocking the projected economic gains. It recommended expanding access to secondary education, improving sexual and reproductive health services, and addressing restrictive social norms that limit opportunities for girls.

It also called for targeted interventions in conflict-affected regions, particularly in the North, where insecurity continues to disrupt education systems and economic participation. Strengthening access to digital tools, financial services, and skills development programmes was also highlighted as essential.

The report referenced ongoing initiatives such as the $1.2 billion Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment (AGILE), which focuses on improving secondary education, infrastructure development, scholarships, and skills acquisition for girls. It noted that while progress has been made, scaling such programmes is necessary to reach more marginalised populations.

In addition, the assessment emphasised the need for stronger legal protections against early marriage, improved support systems for young mothers, and expanded childcare and training services to enable sustained participation in education and work.

The report concluded that strategic investment in adolescent girls represents not only a social development priority but also a significant economic opportunity for Nigeria, with the potential to contribute substantially to national income growth if effectively implemented over time.