Fuel shock: Nigeria records world’s highest price spike

By: Amarachi Okonkwo

Nigeria has recorded the sharpest surge in petrol pump prices globally, with costs rising by 39.5 per cent between February 23 and March 16, according to data from globalpetrolprices.com.

The steep increase has pushed retail prices to as high as ₦1,200 per litre across parts of the country, triggering a significant spike in transportation costs. Commuters and logistics operators report that fares on major intercity routes have in some cases doubled within the period, intensifying cost-of-living pressures.

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Comparative data shows Nigeria’s price jump outpaced all other countries tracked within the timeframe. Laos recorded the second-highest increase at 32.9 per cent, followed by Australia and Vietnam at 31.8 per cent each. Prices in the United States rose by 23.6 per cent, while Spain, Canada, and Germany recorded increases of 18.7 per cent, 17.2 per cent, and 14.9 per cent respectively.

Further down the ranking, Egypt posted a 14.3 per cent rise and France 12.3 per cent, while South Africa and Mexico saw marginal increases of 1 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively.

Market analysts attribute the global surge to escalating tensions in the Middle East, which have triggered one of the most significant supply disruptions in the history of the international oil market. The disruption has driven crude oil prices to a four-year high, amplifying price volatility across both importing and producing nations.

Nigeria’s situation is particularly notable given expectations that increased domestic refining capacity would shield the country from external shocks. However, recent developments suggest otherwise. On March 13, the Dangote Refinery raised its ex-gantry price to ₦1,175 per litre.

The refinery had earlier clarified that its crude procurement is tied to international benchmarks, limiting its ability to insulate domestic fuel prices from global market fluctuations.
Adding to the pressure, Nigeria’s crude oil production declined to 1.31 million barrels per day in February, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The drop in output weakens the country’s revenue position at a time when global oil prices are surging, thereby constraining its capacity to stabilise the downstream market.

The combined effect of rising global crude prices, currency pressures, and domestic supply constraints has heightened inflationary risks in Africa’s largest economy. Analysts warn that unless there is a stabilisation in global oil markets or a significant boost in local production and refining efficiency, petrol prices may remain elevated in the near term, with broader implications for transport costs, food prices, and overall economic stability.