Nigeria’s Debt Service Bill Seen Crossing ₦91trn by 2028

Nigeria is projected to spend more than ₦91 trillion on debt servicing between 2023 and 2028, underscoring the growing strain public borrowing is placing on government finances.

An assessment of budget documents and medium-term fiscal projections shows that debt service costs have risen sharply in recent years, consistently exceeding initial budget estimates.

In 2023 and 2024, actual debt service payments overshot projections by wide margins. The trend has continued into 2025, with spending already surpassing pro-rated expectations midway through the year.

Looking ahead, projections indicate that annual debt service could rise to nearly ₦20 trillion by 2027 and 2028, driven by an expanding debt stock and persistently high interest rates.

While capital expenditure remains a stated priority, releases for infrastructure and development projects have lagged behind debt payments, effectively squeezing investment in key growth-enhancing sectors.

Revenue underperformance remains a major contributor to the problem, as government income has struggled to keep pace with rising obligations. Weak revenue growth has forced increased borrowing, further compounding servicing costs.

Analysts warn that unless borrowing costs decline significantly or revenue reforms yield durable gains, debt service will continue to dominate federal spending, limiting fiscal flexibility and long-term economic investment.