The Federal Executive Council has approved Nigeria’s Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) covering 2026 to 2028, outlining key macroeconomic assumptions and revenue expectations for the period.

Following the meeting in Abuja, the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu, disclosed that the Federal Government based the framework on an oil benchmark price of $64 per barrel and an exchange rate assumption of ₦1,512 per dollar for 2026. Daily oil production was set at 2.06 million barrels, although fiscal projections rely on a more conservative 1.8 million barrels per day.

Inflation for 2026 is expected to average 18%.

Based on the assumptions, total revenue accruing to the federation is projected at ₦50.74 trillion, to be shared among the federal, state, and local governments. The Federal Government’s share is estimated at ₦22.6 trillion, with states receiving ₦16.3 trillion and local governments ₦11.85 trillion.

When revenue from government-owned enterprises is added, total federal receipts for 2026 are projected to reach ₦34.33 trillion, representing a 16% decline compared to the 2025 budget estimate.

Statutory transfers are pegged at around ₦3 trillion, while ₦10.91 trillion is allocated to debt servicing. Non-debt recurrent expenditure is projected at ₦15.27 trillion. The fiscal deficit is expected to hit ₦20.1 trillion, representing 3.61% of GDP.

The MTEF also forecasts Nigeria’s nominal GDP to reach ₦690 trillion in 2026, rising to ₦890.6 trillion by 2028. Non-oil GDP is projected to grow from ₦550.7 trillion to ₦871.3 trillion, while oil GDP is expected to increase from ₦557.4 trillion to ₦893.5 trillion over the same period.