Global jet fuel supply is unlikely to stabilise immediately even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes full operations, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Director-General Willie Walsh stated that while crude oil flows may recover quickly, refining disruptions in the Middle East will continue to affect fuel availability.

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“If it (the Strait of Hormuz) were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East,” Walsh said.

He explained that the current disruption differs from the COVID-19 shock, aligning more closely with past crises such as the September 11 attacks and the global financial crisis.

Airlines, particularly in Asia, have already begun adjusting operations by reducing flights, carrying additional fuel, and introducing extra refuelling stops.

Walsh added that while some capacity gaps may be filled by non-Gulf carriers, full replacement is unlikely in the short term.

He noted that countries like India and Nigeria could increase refining output to ease supply pressures, while higher refining margins may incentivise global production increases.

However, he maintained that recovery would take time due to structural constraints in refining capacity.

The situation follows a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which includes plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a critical global oil transit route.