Airfares stall as Jet fuel prices soar 184% 

By: Amarachi Okonkwo  

Domestic airfares in Nigeria have remained largely unchanged despite a sharp 184 per cent surge in aviation fuel prices, as intense competition among airlines forces operators to absorb rising costs amid weak passenger demand. 

Findings show that while the price of Jet A1, the single largest cost component for airlines has climbed sharply from about N900 per litre in January to N2,557 per litre by late March 2026, ticket prices have stayed within a narrow band across major domestic routes. Analysts say this unusual pricing stability reflects intense competition among local carriers and fragile passenger demand, even as operators face mounting financial strain. 

Industry insiders, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue, told The PUNCH that competitive pressure among Nigeria’s roughly 15 scheduled airlines has effectively capped fare increases, forcing operators to absorb much of the cost shock. 

“It’s purely the pressure of competition,” one airline source said. “Instead of fares rising in line with costs, pricing is being pushed downward because of the number of players in the market.” 

Fares Flat Across Key Routes 

A review of airline booking platforms indicates that ticket prices have remained broadly consistent between January and the end of March. One-way fares on major routes such as Lagos–Abuja, Lagos–Port Harcourt, and Kano–Lagos currently range between N106,000 and N147,000, depending on the carrier. 

For instance, Ibom Air lists Lagos–Abuja flights for early April at about N114,600, while similar routes on United Nigeria Airlines hover around N142,500. Aero Contractors offers slightly lower fares near N106,000 on select routes, whereas Air Peace remains at the upper end of the pricing spectrum, with Lagos–Abuja tickets selling for about N147,000. 

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Despite the cost pressures, these fares are largely unchanged from levels recorded two months ago. 

Fuel Costs Squeeze Margins 

Aviation fuel accounts for roughly 40 per cent of airlines’ operating costs, followed by maintenance expenses, making the recent spike particularly damaging to profitability. 

Market data shows significant regional variations in Jet A1 pricing, with Sokoto Airport recording the highest rate at N2,557 per litre. Kano follows closely at N2,554, while Port Harcourt and Asaba average around N2,543. Abuja, Enugu, and Warri report slightly lower prices, while Lagos remains the cheapest at approximately N2,500 per litre. 

The surge has intensified pressure on already thin margins, with operators struggling to balance cost recovery against the risk of losing passengers. 

Demand Weakness Limits Pricing Power 

Beyond competition, weak consumer purchasing power is also constraining airlines’ ability to raise fares. Nigeria’s passenger traffic has declined steadily in recent years, dropping from 16.2 million in 2022 to 15.6 million in 2024, reflecting broader economic challenges. 

A retired pilot, Muhammad Badamosi, noted that airlines are wary of pricing themselves out of the market, as higher fares could push travellers toward road transport. 

“Nigerians don’t have the disposable income right now,” he said. “If fares go much higher, many people will simply stop flying.” 

He added that even frequent travellers are cutting back significantly, underscoring the sensitivity of demand to price increases. 

New Entrants Intensify Competition 

The competitive landscape is also expanding, with new entrants continuing to join the market. Enugu Air and Binani Airlines recently secured Air Operator Certificates from the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority, adding to an already crowded field. 

Analysts say this influx of operators, combined with relatively low passenger volumes, is creating a supply-demand imbalance that further suppresses fares. 

Sustainability Concerns Mount 

Aviation analyst Olumide Ohunayo warned that the current pricing dynamics are unsustainable, noting that even potential fare increases may be insufficient to offset the surge in fuel costs. 

“No matter the increase airlines implement, they may still not recover their losses,” he said, adding that Nigeria’s aviation fuel prices are significantly higher than in many other countries. 

Ohunayo pointed out that some governments have deployed strategic reserves and cut taxes  in some cases by as much as 50 per cent  to cushion the impact of rising fuel costs on airlines and passengers. 

In contrast, he said, Nigeria has yet to introduce comparable relief measures. 

Calls for Government Intervention 

Industry stakeholders are now calling for targeted policy support, including temporary tax reliefs and other fiscal incentives, to help airlines navigate the cost surge. 

“There must be a way to support operators during this period,” Ohunayo said. “Why are airlines bearing the highest burden alone?” 

With fuel prices still elevated and demand remaining fragile, operators are expected to review their pricing strategies in the coming weeks. However, analysts caution that any upward adjustments could further dampen passenger traffic, deepening the sector’s challenges. 

For now, Nigeria’s domestic aviation market remains caught in a delicate balancing act — where rising costs, intense competition, and weak demand converge to keep airfares unusually stable despite mounting economic pressure.