Business Briefings
Nigeria’s crude oil output drops to 1.31mbpd in February, misses OPEC quota
Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.31 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February 2026, further widening the country’s gap with the 1.5mbpd output quota approved by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), even as domestic refineries struggle with insufficient crude supply.
Data from the group’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report showed that Nigeria produced 1.314mbpd in February, down from 1.459mbpd in January, representing a month-on-month decline of 146,000 barrels per day. The drop underscores Nigeria’s persistent difficulty in meeting its OPEC production allocation and sustaining crude supply for both export and domestic refining.
The shortfall is also affecting operations at local refineries, particularly the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which requires large volumes of crude to maintain its refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day.
To address supply gaps, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) has begun sourcing crude through international traders to ensure the refinery continues operations.
A senior official at NNPC said the national oil company is leveraging its global crude trading network to secure third-party supplies at competitive international prices.
“As the national oil company entrusted with safeguarding Nigeria’s energy security, NNPC Limited remains fully committed to supporting domestic refining, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. Within the framework of our existing agreements, we continue to facilitate crude supply to DRP, in the face of temporary availability constraints,” the official said.
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Despite the arrangement, the refinery has continued to raise concerns over inadequate local crude supply. Under the government’s naira-for-crude policy, the refinery is expected to receive 13 cargoes monthly, but it currently gets only about five cargoes from NNPC, forcing it to import crude at international market prices.
The February decline also reversed the modest recovery recorded in January when production rose from 1.422mbpd in December 2025 to 1.459mbpd. With the latest figures, Nigeria has now failed to meet its OPEC quota for seven consecutive months since August 2025, highlighting persistent operational and supply challenges in the upstream sector.
Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) had earlier indicated weakening production levels toward the end of 2025. Output slipped from 1.436mbpd in November to 1.422mbpd in December, before the brief rebound in January.
In 2025, Nigeria fell below its OPEC allocation in nine months, exceeding the quota only in January, June, and July. Production began the year strongly at 1.54mbpd in January, about 38,700 barrels per day above the quota, but slipped to 1.47mbpd in February and 1.40mbpd in March, marking one of the widest shortfalls during the year.
Although output improved slightly in April (1.49mbpd) and May (1.45mbpd), it remained below the quota until June, when production rose to 1.51mbpd, slightly exceeding the OPEC ceiling. The country maintained the momentum in July with 1.51mbpd before slipping below the target again in subsequent months.
The continued production shortfall comes at a time when the Federal Government expects higher oil output to support revenue projections in the 2026 budget.
Meanwhile, the newly appointed chief executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, has pledged to boost Nigeria’s oil production as part of broader reforms in the upstream sector.
According to a statement issued by the commission’s Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, Eyesan’s agenda is built on three pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion, regulatory predictability and speed, and safe, governed and sustainable operations.
The strategy aligns with the economic agenda of Bola Tinubu, which targets increasing Nigeria’s crude oil output to 2 million barrels per day by 2027 and 3 million barrels per day by 2030.
Eyesan said the commission would pursue production growth by recovering shut-in volumes, curbing natural field decline, reducing production losses and accelerating time-to-first oil, while avoiding additional regulatory burdens for operators.
