Economic Complexity, Not Oil, Holds Nigeria’s Future

Adedeji calls for a paradigm shift from resource dependence to innovation-led growth

Nigeria cannot continue relying on raw material exports if it hopes to achieve sustainable economic growth and long-term prosperity, the Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service, Zacch Adedeji, has warned. Speaking at the maiden Distinguished Personality Lecture of the Faculty of Administration at Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Adedeji called for a fundamental shift from a resource-dependent economy to one driven by ideas, innovation, and the production of complex goods.

In his lecture, titled “From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy”, Adedeji stressed that Nigeria’s current economic structure leaves it poorly positioned in a global landscape that increasingly rewards knowledge, technology, and productive complexity rather than natural endowments. “A paradigm shift for Nigeria is needed,” he said, “to move dependence on raw material exports to one that embraces innovation and the creation of complex products as a pathway to sustainable growth and national prosperity.”

Highlighting decades of stagnation, Adedeji noted that between 2008 and 2023, Nigeria added only six new products to its export basket. The country’s export drive has seen little meaningful progress over the past 25 years, while peer economies pursued deliberate strategies to diversify and upgrade their productive capabilities. “We are not just producing too little; we are producing too little of the wrong things,” he said. “Growth must be rethought through the lens of economic complexity. It is not about producing more of the same commodities, but about learning how to make new, more sophisticated products.”

Adedeji described Nigeria’s economy as a paradox. While the oil and gas sector employs high technology, the broader economy remains dominated by low-productivity informal activities, lacking a vibrant industrial base to absorb labour and bridge the gap to higher-value production. Drawing on the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, he observed that Nigeria currently has very few opportunities to diversify its exports using existing capabilities.

To illustrate a potential path forward, Adedeji urged Nigeria to learn from the experiences of countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, and South Africa. Vietnam’s rise, he said, was driven by a clear strategy to build economic complexity through deep integration into global value chains, importing high-tech components and exporting finished products. This approach allowed the country to “borrow” technology and management expertise from abroad, gradually building its own capabilities. In contrast, Brazil and South Africa lost industrial momentum due to over-reliance on natural resources and a failure to continuously upgrade productive capabilities.

“Nigeria remains a supplier of raw materials to global chains, not an active participant within them,” Adedeji warned. “Productive capabilities are not permanent. Over-reliance on resource extraction creates economic and political incentives that crowd out the difficult, long-term work of building an industrial base.” He added that for a country at Nigeria’s stage of development, depending solely on natural endowments is a path not just to stagnation, but to regression.

Adedeji argued that Nigeria must reposition itself to become an active participant in global value chains, producing higher-value goods and services. “The global economy increasingly rewards knowledge and complexity, not just what you can dig out of the ground,” he said. “If we want to move from potential to prosperity, we must stop being just a source of raw materials and start being a source of ideas, innovation, and complex products.”

He noted that President Bola Tinubu had begun the “difficult work” of rebuilding the economy to foster innovation, productivity, and resilience. Yet, Adedeji cautioned that the journey from potential to prosperity is long and requires a clear roadmap, strategic resolve, and consistent implementation.

Nigeria’s historical dependence on crude oil has left the country vulnerable to global price shocks and limited industrial development. Despite decades of industrialisation policies, export expansion grants, and local content initiatives, manufacturing still contributes a relatively small share of GDP and exports. Meanwhile, countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh have transformed their economies through deliberate integration into global manufacturing chains, investing heavily in skills, infrastructure, and institutional capacity.

With declining oil revenues, rising unemployment, and growing fiscal pressures, Adedeji’s message is clear: Nigeria must move beyond commodity exports toward higher-value manufacturing and knowledge-based industries to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth. The choice is stark—remain a supplier of raw materials or become a hub of innovation, ideas, and complex production that can compete on the global stage.