MTEF: Reps, Senate Split on Oil Price Benchmark

The House of Representatives has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper with a crude oil benchmark of $64.85 per barrel for 2026, diverging from the $60 benchmark earlier adopted by the Senate.

Lawmakers also endorsed a proposed federal expenditure of N54.46 trillion for 2026, consisting of N31.83 trillion in retained revenue and N20.38 trillion in new borrowings from both domestic and external sources.

The approval followed the adoption of a joint committee report during plenary, clearing the final legislative hurdle required for President Bola Tinubu to present the 2026 budget estimates to a joint session of the National Assembly.

Under the approved framework, debt service is projected at N15.52 trillion, while pensions and retirees’ benefits stand at N1.376 trillion. The fiscal deficit is estimated at N22.63 trillion, with capital expenditure set at N20.13 trillion and recurrent non-debt spending at N15.27 trillion.

The House also sustained statutory transfers of N3.15 trillion and approved inflation projections of 16.5 per cent for 2026, easing to single digits by 2028. Real GDP growth is forecast at 4.68 per cent in 2026, rising to 7.9 per cent by 2028.

Exchange rate assumptions were set at N1,512 to the dollar in 2026, with gradual appreciation projected over the medium term, in line with monetary authorities’ efforts to stabilise the naira.

With the passage of the framework, President Tinubu is expected to formally present the 2026 budget to lawmakers today. The House has also scheduled further sessions to address revisions to the 2024 budget and to consider statutory budget proposals from key federal agencies.