Global Trade Soars to $35 Trillion in 2025, Led by Emerging Markets

Growth driven by trade volumes rather than prices, with South–South trade and emerging markets leading the recovery

According to data released by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global trade in goods and services is on track to exceed $35 trillion in 2025, representing an increase of around $2.2 trillion, or about 7 per cent, compared with 2024. This projected surge would mark the largest annual total ever recorded, underscoring both the resilience and evolving structure of international commerce.

The Global Trade Update shows that, while global trade continued to expand through the second half of the year, underlying momentum softened in the third and fourth quarters as geopolitical tensions, higher costs, and uneven demand moderated growth. Still, developing economies and emerging regions remained key drivers of expansion, widening their role in the global trading system.

Trade activity in 2024 had already reached a historic milestone, with total global trade topping $33 trillion. In that year, services accounted for a large share of growth, rising by 9 per cent and adding nearly $700 billion to global trade value, while goods trade grew more modestly by about 2 per cent. These foundational figures provided the platform on which 2025’s stronger performance has been built.

Comparative Growth Contributions: 2024 vs 2025

Source: UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Global Trade Update, December 2025

This table illustrates that while both goods and services contributed significantly to the overall increase in trade value, services continue to grow at a faster rate when measured relative to their previous size.

Volume, Not Prices, Driving Growth

One notable feature of the 2025 trade landscape is the shift from price‑driven to volume‑driven growth. During the first half of the year, rising prices contributed to increased trade values, particularly for key commodities and manufactured goods. However, as the year progressed, prices for traded goods were expected to decline in the fourth quarter, indicating that increased volumes — the actual quantity of goods shipped — became the dominant factor propelling global trade higher.

This pattern signals deeper, demand‑linked growth rather than a mere inflationary effect, and suggests that the underlying real activity in the global economy sustained trade flows even as pricing pressures eased.

Regional Dynamics: Asia and Africa in Focus

Regional data from the update show that South–South trade, which refers to trade between developing economies, expanded by around 8 per cent over the trailing four quarters. This performance outpaced the global average and highlighted the increasing significance of emerging markets in global trade.

East Asia emerged as a standout performer, with exports rising by 9 per cent and intra‑regional trade growing by 10 per cent over the period. This trend reflects East Asia’s central role in manufacturing and value chains, especially in high‑tech sectors such as electronics and machinery. Africa, too, recorded solid gains: imports rose by 10 per cent over the last four quarters, with exports growing 6 per cent, signaling stronger participation in both regional and global markets.

South America experienced moderate expansion, with intra‑regional trade increasing by 3 per cent in the third quarter and 7 per cent over the last four quarters, supported by agricultural exports and growing regional linkages. In contrast, advanced economies showed more mixed outcomes. North America’s exports declined in some quarters but still posted overall growth over four quarters, while European trade expanded at a gentler pace, illustrating the varied trajectories shaping global commerce.

“South–South trade expansion outpaced the global average, reflecting the rising influence of developing regions in global commerce,” according to analysts.

Sectoral Drivers: Manufacturing and Services Lead

Manufacturing remained one of the strongest drivers of trade growth. Over the past four quarters, manufacturing trade expanded by approximately 10 per cent, with electronics leading the segment with a remarkable 14 per cent growth. This performance was supported by continued global demand for semiconductors, data infrastructure components, and other technology‑linked goods.

The agricultural sector also contributed meaningfully to trade expansion, rising 6 per cent over the same period. Within agriculture, sectors such as cereals, fruits and vegetables, and oilseeds and oils each posted double‑digit gains, reinforcing the broader trend of robust demand for essential food commodities.

In the automotive sphere, trade remained subdued, with total trade falling by about 4 per cent over the trailing four quarters. Growth was concentrated in hybrid vehicle trade, which rose 22 per cent, while combustion‑engine vehicles and electric vehicles both declined. This divergence points to structural shifts within the automotive sector as markets adjust to evolving consumer preferences and regulatory pressures.

Another striking trend came from commodity trade. Iron and steel recorded an impressive rise of about 40 per cent relative to the same period in 2024, underscoring the persistent demand for industrial raw materials even as overall energy commodity trade softened.

“Volume growth, not price increases, now underpins much of the trade expansion, signaling deeper demand and robust activity across key sectors,” officials noted.

Despite broad gains, global trade imbalances remained high in 2025. China’s goods trade surplus, while narrower in some quarters, was still around $30 billion higher than in the corresponding period of 2024. The United States’ overall trade deficit also showed signs of improvement relative to earlier periods.

Trade strategies also reflected broader structural shifts. Friend‑shoring — trading more with politically aligned partners — and near‑shoring — sourcing from geographically closer countries — both strengthened during the year, reversing earlier declines and approaching long‑term averages. These patterns suggest that geopolitical considerations are increasingly shaping how and where countries choose to trade.

Trade concentration among major economic blocs also increased, indicating that a substantial share of global trade flows through a relatively small number of dominant economies. While this can enhance logistical efficiency, it also underscores vulnerabilities in a world where supply chains are tested by geopolitical tensions and policy shifts.

Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities

While 2025 is poised to be a record year in terms of trade value, UNCTAD’s data make clear that the outlook for 2026 is more subdued. Slower global growth, rising debt pressures in developing economies, higher trade costs linked to tariffs and logistics, and persistent uncertainty are expected to dampen trade momentum in the year ahead.

Nonetheless, structural opportunities remain. The resilience of trade volumes, continued expansion of South–South trade, and increasing regional integration all point to enduring strengths in the global trading system. Policymakers may need to further encourage participation in emerging trade networks, deepen digital and service‑oriented trade capabilities, and invest in infrastructure and regulatory frameworks to strengthen supply‑chain resilience and support long‑term growth.

Emerging markets and developing regions, particularly in East Asia and Africa, are likely to continue shaping global trade dynamics. Their rising share of global exports and imports reflects not only increased economic activity but also shifts in comparative advantages and investment flows that will define trade patterns in future decades.