Analysts Warn G20 Could Split as U.S.–South Africa Tensions Escalate

Geopolitical experts are sounding alarms that the G20 may break into competing blocs as diplomatic friction between the United States and South Africa worsens.

The concerns follow Washington’s decision to exclude South Africa from the 2026 G20 Summit, inviting Poland instead. Relations have deteriorated sharply since U.S. President Donald Trump accused South Africa of “genocide against White Afrikaners,” a claim President Cyril Ramaphosa dismissed during a White House visit earlier in the year.

The U.S. also boycotted the 2025 G20 Summit held in Pretoria—the first time the event was hosted on African soil. In response, Pretoria has said it is ready to stay out of the 2026 meetings and is not expecting diplomatic mediation.

On Nairametrics’ Drinks & Mic podcast, Cheta Nwanze, CEO of SBM Intelligence, said the G20’s unity has “all but collapsed,” predicting that geopolitical realignments will lead to the formation of rival blocs. He warned that many non-aligned nations may soon be forced to choose sides in a growing divide he described as “the emerging West versus the rest.”

Nwanze also expressed disappointment that the first G20 summit held in Africa produced no significant outcomes, adding that the weak communiqué raised questions about the relevance of the group.

He noted that prolonged conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have exposed inconsistencies in how global powers apply international norms, saying this renewed environment—where “the strong do what they will”—poses risks for global business.

Arnold Dublin-Green, Chief Investment Officer at Cordros Securities, said Western silence over the U.S. boycott of Pretoria’s summit was telling, arguing that the move strongly signals a geopolitical divide between Western nations and the BRICS bloc. He said the decision may be remembered as a defining moment that confirmed the widening rift among major global powers.

The G20 brings together the world’s largest economies along with the European Union and African Union, representing two-thirds of the world’s population and 85% of global GDP. Under the Trump administration, tensions with South Africa have escalated further, with the expulsion of Pretoria’s ambassador and the introduction of 30% trade tariffs—still being challenged by the South African government.