AFC Warns Africa Must Add 16GW of Power Annually to Avoid Looming Energy Crisis by 2050

Africa must urgently scale up its power generation capacity by at least 16 gigawatts (GW) each year through 2050 to avert a severe energy crisis, according to the newly released State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2025 by the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC).

In addition to boosting generation, the continent needs to invest between $3.2 billion and $4.3 billion annually in transmission infrastructure to meet its growing energy demands and support basic developmental goals. The AFC stressed that these investments are critical to raise Africa’s average electricity generation to 0.3 MW per 1,000 people—comparable to current benchmarks in India and Indonesia.

Despite the stark warning, the AFC highlighted significant investment opportunities across key energy sectors such as solar photovoltaics, gas-to-power, hydropower, battery storage, and modern grid infrastructure.

“With the right mix of investment and policy reform, Africa can build a globally competitive, integrated, and future-ready energy system,” the report said.

Private Sector Participation: Learning from Latin America

The AFC urged African nations to study the successful energy sector reforms in Latin America, particularly Brazil. Since the 1990s, Brazil has attracted private sector investment in transmission infrastructure through competitive auctions and independent power transmission (IPT) models.

Brazil’s national grid expanded from 105,000 km in 2012 to 184,000 km by 2023, thanks to consistent auctioning of transmission lines. In 2024 alone, Brazil’s first transmission tender attracted $3.65 billion—matching Africa’s annual requirement for transmission investment.

“Brazil’s experience illustrates the importance of regulatory reforms, utility unbundling, and long-term planning to unlock large-scale private capital,” the AFC added.

Implications for Nigeria

As Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria plays a pivotal role in achieving the continent’s energy targets. To meet its domestic electricity demand and support sustainable development, the country must align with the broader goal of adding 16 GW of grid-connected generation capacity annually through mid-century.

Nigeria is currently battling persistent power deficits, over-reliance on diesel generators, and outdated grid infrastructure. In late 2024, the Federal Government estimated that the country needs approximately $10 billion in private-sector investment over the next five to ten years to secure a 24-hour electricity supply.

In April 2025, Minister of Power, Chief Adebayo Adelabu, claimed that about 150 million Nigerians now have access to electricity, though 80 million still live without reliable power. This progress, he noted, is largely due to Nigeria’s involvement in the “Mission 300” initiative—a joint effort by the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB) aimed at extending electricity to 300 million Africans by 2030.