NESG Calls for Nigeria to Safeguard Economy Amid U.S.-China Trade War

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that Nigeria must adopt proactive measures to shield its economy from the ongoing trade war between the United States and China.

This caution came in the “NESG Foreign Trade Alert: 2024Q4 & Full Year 2024,” which highlighted Nigeria’s vulnerability to global trade disruptions, particularly in its import-dependent industrial sector.

“The trade war between the U.S. and China needs to be hedged against. Nigeria needs to divert its trade pattern towards countries that are unaffected by the U.S. tariffs. This would reduce tariff-induced increases in import bills, considering that the country’s import-dependent non-oil industrial sector is highly vulnerable,” the report noted.

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Rising Trade Tensions In February 2025, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, with plans to increase it by another 10% in April. In response, China announced additional tariffs of 10-15% on certain U.S. imports, effective March 10, 2025, along with export restrictions targeting specific U.S. entities.

These countermeasures are anticipated to disrupt global supply chains, slow world trade growth, and increase the prices of internationally traded goods.

With Nigeria’s heavy reliance on imported manufactured goods and raw materials, NESG cautioned that the country could face significant economic challenges if these trade tensions escalate.

Nigeria’s Exposure to Trade Risks China remained Nigeria’s largest trading partner in Q4 2024, followed by India, Belgium, the U.S., and France. Key imports during this period included refined petroleum products, sugar cane, and spare parts.

However, Nigeria’s dependence on Chinese imports exposes it to price volatility and supply chain disruptions arising from the U.S.-China conflict. The report further revealed that Nigeria’s raw material imports totaled N2.1 trillion in Q4 2024, significantly surpassing exports, which stood at just N0.7 trillion.

Evolving Trade Patterns Recent data points to Nigeria’s growing shift towards Eastern markets, particularly China and India. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China accounted for N14.14 trillion of Nigeria’s imports in 2024, while India contributed N6.17 trillion, bringing their combined total to N20.31 trillion.

Highlighting this Eastern shift, the Nigerian government sought South Africa’s backing in December 2024 to gain full membership in the G20, BRICS, and the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB). The BRICS bloc, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE, currently makes up about 37% of global GDP and is seen as a major force in global economic growth.

As Nigeria contends with the uncertainties posed by the ongoing trade war, NESG underscored the need for diversifying trade alliances to protect the country’s economic resilience.