Nigeria’s GDP Per Capita Declines to $835 — IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita dropped to $835.49 in 2025, down from $877.07 in 2024, reflecting a 4.74 percent decline.

According to data released on the IMF website on Thursday, Nigeria’s GDP per capita has been on a continuous downward trend since 2014, when it peaked at $3,220.

GDP is widely regarded as the primary indicator of a country’s economic performance, representing the total value of goods and services produced within a nation during a given period. GDP per capita, calculated by dividing this figure by the average population, serves as a measure of citizens’ standard of living.

Despite the current decline, the IMF forecasts an upward trajectory from 2026 onwards, projecting GDP per capita to surpass $1,000 by 2028, reaching $1,040.

The data further indicates that Nigeria, along with many other sub-Saharan African nations, falls within the GDP per capita range of $500 to $2,500, with some countries below the $500 mark.

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This decline coincides with the National Bureau of Statistics’ rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP, which incorporates previously unaccounted sectors into the economy.

The newly included sectors in the rebased GDP, as announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, encompass digital economy activities, pension funds, the National Health Insurance Scheme, the Nigerian Social Insurance Trust Fund, modular refineries, domestic households as employers, quarrying, other mining activities, and undocumented or illicit economic activities.

Despite the drop in GDP per capita, the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from Stanbic IBTC Bank indicates growing confidence in Nigeria’s business environment, with business activity expanding for the second consecutive month.

The PMI report highlights that the moderate growth seen in the Nigerian private sector at the end of 2024 continued into early 2025, with an increase in new orders and overall business activity.

Commenting on this trend, Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, noted:

“Nigeria’s private sector activity maintained its upward momentum in January 2025, although at a slightly lower level than December 2024. We observed an increase in both output (53.7 compared to 54.8 in December 2024) and new orders (52.6 compared to 53.2 in December 2024). While these figures are slightly weaker than those at the close of 2024, they indicate improving customer demand and a greater willingness to commit to new projects. With rising new orders, businesses hired more workers in January, marking the second consecutive month of employment growth.”

Oni further added, “Meanwhile, input costs rose at a slower pace, and the rate of increase in output prices was the lowest recorded since July 2024. Inflation averaged 33.1 percent year-on-year in 2024, up from 24.52 percent in 2023, driven mainly by substantial currency depreciation, full deregulation of petrol prices, low food supply due to extreme weather, and heightened food demand, particularly during the festive season.”

According to the IMF, Nigeria’s real GDP is expected to grow by 3.2 percent in 2025, with inflation anticipated to decline to 25 percent.

However, this projection is more conservative than the 5.5 percent growth forecast by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG). The group recently released its 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook Report, themed “Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond.”

During the report’s presentation, Olusegun Omisakin, NESG’s Chief Economist and Director of Research, stated:

“A GDP growth rate of 5.5 percent is achievable if Nigeria maintains stability-focused reforms. However, challenges such as inefficient policy implementation and economic constraints could reduce growth to 3.4 percent, while a reversal of reforms could lower it further to 2.7 percent. The success of economic stabilisation in 2025 will largely depend on the quality of policy execution.”

Meanwhile, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, projected that the Nigerian economy would expand by 4.1 percent in 2025, with a significant decline in inflation and increased foreign exchange inflows.

Cardoso remarked:

“Key economic indicators suggest a positive outlook for 2025, with GDP growth projected to rise from 3.36 percent in 2024 to 4.17 percent in 2025.

“This expected growth is anchored on the sustained implementation of government reforms, stable crude oil prices, and improved domestic oil production. Enhanced refining capacity—driven by the Dangote refinery and the revitalization of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries—will further boost economic activity. Additionally, a stable exchange rate will be essential in maintaining this growth trajectory. Inflation is projected to decline as economic reforms take effect. Achieving these goals will require effective collaboration between monetary and fiscal authorities, alongside active private sector participation.”